Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1583…42a1 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
other 27% −$5
world 19% +$17
sports 9% +$28
finance 6% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.0% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 42 +4.3% -5.6% 43% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 10% -8.0%
10% -14.6% 7% -16.8%
15% -22.9% 7% -24.8%
20% -30.4% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage540d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 +$2 +5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $63 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $21 −$3 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $34 −$3 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $129 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $131 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $151 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $281 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $281 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 31 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $21 −$1 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 19 $56 $0 +0%
Idaho vs. Montana State Mar 03 $48 −$1 -2%
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State Mar 03 $8 $0 -1%
NJIT vs. Binghamton Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 03 $45 +$10 +22%
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards? Mar 03 $29 +$18 +61%
Grand Canyon vs. UT Arlington Feb 16 $13 +$14 +104%
Will the match between PAOK and FCSB end in a draw? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Marshall vs. South Alabama Feb 14 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Jan 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Dec 30 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $34 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $20 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $37 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $32 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records