Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x1581…ec76 crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-11%) realized −$226 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$316
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$59
other 11% −$39
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +23.6% +11.9% 73% 73% +19.4%
≤30d 59 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 51% -9.3%
≤90d 59 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 51% -9.3%
all 59 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 51% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 51% -9.3%
10% -21.2% 42% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 39% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 34% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage13d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $41 $50 +$10 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 30¢ 50¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 74¢ 50¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$23 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.53 · official $134.53 (match) · 126 history records