Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x157c…4381
sports · 78 markets active 2d ago
1.5score
+$7 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$13
14 days−$30
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) EDward Gaming Youth Team 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Movistar KOI 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) UCAM Esports Club 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: China PR (-1.5) China PR 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Saigon Dino 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) JD Gaming 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A HMBLE 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs LGD Gaming 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Dplus KIA 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Manchester City FC 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $7 −$6 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
North Macedonia vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +236%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Tajikistan (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$4 +220%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 +$3 +151%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$3 +158%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $2 +$2 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 +$3 +134%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $4 +$2 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +83%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $3 +$3 +86%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $6 −$5 -98%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +120%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 04 $3 $0 +12%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$5 +339%
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 +$4 +172%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $7 +$2 +24%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -77%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $1 −$1 -60%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$7
other 11% +$3
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 36h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 37h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 37h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G BUY Karmine Corp Blue 32¢ $2 37h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $2 37h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G BUY Karmine Corp Blue 57¢ $5 37h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY HMBLE 30¢ $1 38h
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $9 38h
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 59¢ $1 40h
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) BUY G2 NORD 54¢ $5 40h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 14¢ $1 40h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 42h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 17¢ $1 43h
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming Youth Team 64¢ $5 46h
Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 2d
North Macedonia vs. Azerbaijan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 2d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 2d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 2d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 58¢ $10 2d
Spread: Tajikistan (-1.5) BUY Tajikistan 31¢ $1 2d
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 2d
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 3d
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 3d
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S BUY Karmine Corp Blue 66¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.1% -19.5% 37% 37% -26.4%
≤30d 74 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 34% -19.9%
≤90d 77 -9.5% -18.2% 35% 34% -6.3%
all 77 -9.5% -18.2% 35% 34% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 34% -6.3%
10% -26.0% 32% -15.3%
15% -33.1% 31% -23.5%
20% -39.7% 30% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 117 history records