Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x157a…9216 sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% −$22
sports 22% −$11
politics 21% −$11
crypto 15% −$9
economics 9% −$3
world 3% +$1
finance 3% −$1
culture 3% −$3
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 65 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 109
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage100d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $60 −$2 -4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $63 +$1 +2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $118 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $169 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $89 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $339 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $219 −$3 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $395 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $43 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 06 $66 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $129 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 04 $45 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $125 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $168 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $154 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $58 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $60 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $42 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $36 14h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $45 15h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $45 21h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 21h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 28h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 29h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 37h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 38h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $41 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 92¢ $39 2d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $58 2d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $64 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $63 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $66 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $13 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $13 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.45 · official $48.45 (match) · 460 history records