Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1578…3ba0 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$735 (-9%) realized −$736 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day3143.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.6% -10.0% 45% 5% -10.1%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.0% 45% 5% -10.1%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.0% 45% 5% -10.1%
all 20 -0.6% -10.0% 45% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3143.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 5% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
149.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$736
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$377
Trades / day3143.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 80¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $469 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $343 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $331 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $425 −$26 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $898 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $371 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $384 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $392 −$16 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $432 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $260 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $226 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $439 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $417 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $330 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $468 −$19 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $629 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $192 −$22 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $292 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $332 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $184 +$30 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $0 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.32 · official $12.11 · 3500 history records