Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1576…56f0 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$33
other 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -36.7% -42.7% 29% 29% -22.2%
≤30d 28 -36.7% -42.7% 29% 29% -22.2%
≤90d 28 -36.7% -42.7% 29% 29% -22.2%
all 28 -36.7% -42.7% 29% 29% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 29% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 18% -29.6%
15% -53.2% 18% -36.4%
20% -57.8% 18% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$7 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$7 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$5 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.31 (match) · 102 history records