Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x1575…3d32 sports 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$460 (-1%) realized −$465 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate76%179W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$214
14 days−$1,008
30 days−$944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$115
other 3% −$500
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.4% -55.1% 33% 33% -62.3%
≤30d 122 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 47% -13.9%
≤90d 237 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 51% -11.1%
all 237 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 51% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 51% -11.1%
10% -15.6% 32% -19.6%
15% -23.8% 20% -27.4%
20% -31.3% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$127 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses179 / 58
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions3
Markets (closed)237 / 240
History coverage45d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 66¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$50 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$114 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $72 −$70 -98%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $99 +$74 +74%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $95 −$94 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $147 +$47 +32%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $137 −$135 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $319 −$318 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $254 −$250 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $102 +$201 +197%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $160 +$60 +38%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $200 +$11 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $435 +$253 +58%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $152 +$86 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $201 +$49 +24%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $201 +$32 +16%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $151 +$58 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $16 +$2 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $167 +$103 +62%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $201 +$19 +9%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $48 +$1 +2%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 01 $150 +$17 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $151 +$36 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $101 −$98 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $125 +$216 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $55 +$31 +57%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $169 −$168 -99%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 May 31 $101 +$68 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $200 +$28 +14%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh May 31 $100 −$56 -56%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 4.5 May 31 $151 +$28 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $101 +$7 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $152 +$66 +43%
BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 4.5 May 31 $136 +$56 +41%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 4.5 May 31 $134 −$132 -99%
Singapore vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5 May 31 $180 +$90 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $218 +$61 +28%
Roland Garros Juniors, Boys: Timeo Trufelli vs Matei Todoran May 31 $176 −$158 -90%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $164 +$12 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $339 −$33 -10%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais May 31 $99 +$59 +60%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 31 $81 +$76 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $95 +$85 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $205 −$104 -51%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $95 +$8 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $52 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $153 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $115 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $152 30h
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 24¢ $72 10d
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $89 11d
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $95 11d
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $194 11d
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 11d
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 80¢ $101 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $147 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 57¢ $137 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $118 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 31¢ $102 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $201 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 57¢ $152 13d
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $221 14d
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $160 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 33¢ $102 14d
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton SELL Hynek Barton 100¢ $211 14d
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 95¢ $200 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk SELL Marta Kostyuk 100¢ $687 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 67¢ $283 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $238 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $152 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.38 · official $155.38 (match) · 474 history records