Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x1573…8aac sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$168
other 16% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.8% +2.0% 55% 55% -4.6%
≤30d 31 +12.8% +2.0% 55% 55% -4.6%
≤90d 31 +12.8% +2.0% 55% 55% -4.6%
all 31 +12.8% +2.0% 55% 55% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 55% -4.6%
10% -7.7% 52% -13.8%
15% -16.6% 52% -22.1%
20% -24.8% 42% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$60 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$90 +176%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $132 +$57 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $86 −$84 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$26 +126%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $40 +$7 +16%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$68 +134%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 +$23 +46%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$27 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$95 +156%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$7 -14%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $76 +$83 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 +$113 +74%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $158 −$155 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $141 30m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 35m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $68 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $31 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $45 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $75 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $35 8h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 9h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 23h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 32¢ $6 23h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 32¢ $42 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $51 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 65¢ $74 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.50 (match) · 68 history records