Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x1570…b882 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$635 (+128%) realized +$635 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip
Net edge+100%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$279
14 days+$279
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$682
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+99.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +93.8% +75.3% 100% 100% +75.3%
≤30d 3 +93.8% +75.3% 100% 100% +75.3%
≤90d 3 +93.8% +75.3% 100% 100% +75.3%
all 4 +120.8% +99.8% 100% 100% +114.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +99.8% 100% +114.5%
10% +80.7% 100% +94.0%
15% +63.2% 100% +75.2%
20% +47.2% 50% +58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +137% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$635
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage98d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $99 +$50 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$187 +188%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $199 +$402 +202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $286 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $99 3d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 100¢ $602 98d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 33¢ $199 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records