Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1570…de29
weather · 293 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$3,610 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,606 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$140
Realized−$3,606
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses153 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$473
Open positions3
Markets (closed)290 / 293
History coverage100d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$362
14 days+$250
30 days−$1,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? No 95¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? No 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? No 9¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? No 95¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Liaoning Flying Leopards 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Qingdao Eagles vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Liaoning Flying Leopards 43¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions Zhejiang Lions 54¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? No 20¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 26¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 25? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 13¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 9? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28? No 13¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Guangdong Southern Tigers 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Liaoning Flying Leopards 42¢ 0¢ $209 $0 −$209 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 3? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $196 +$48 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 −$26 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$69 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $161 +$20 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $251 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$30 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $106 +$20 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$18 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$20 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$12 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $552 −$18 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $103 −$76 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$35 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $144 −$98 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$20 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$31 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $560 −$211 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$16 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $89 −$10 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $60 −$39 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $60 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$20 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$20 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$5 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $52 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $90 −$9 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $110 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $125 +$17 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $91 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $88 +$11 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $78 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $22 −$19 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $236 +$63 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $364 +$706 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 +$76 +602%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $111 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $86 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 −$24 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $111 +$20 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $152 +$52 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $469 +$65 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 62% −$209
sports 38% −$3,365
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $113 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 94¢ $245 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $95 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $85 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $181 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $111 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $161 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $246 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $144 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $126 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $146 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $170 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $105 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 38h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 39h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $114 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $106 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $93 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $74 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $74 40h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $74 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 44% -17.5%
≤30d 141 -2.8% -12.0% 59% 35% -14.6%
≤90d 290 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 35% -12.4%
all 290 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 35% -12.4%
10% -20.5% 20% -20.8%
15% -28.2% 14% -28.4%
20% -35.2% 11% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.59 · official $139.59 (match) · 1375 history records