Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156e…cf6f sports 507 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,583 (-8%) realized −$3,540 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%269W / 237L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$453est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$242
14 days−$1,191
30 days−$2,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$2,944
crypto 15% −$1,626
other 7% +$531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.3% -2.0% 61% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 228 -9.6% -18.3% 51% 43% -22.4%
≤90d 506 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 45% -17.4%
all 506 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 45% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 45% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 39% -25.3%
15% -32.4% 32% -32.5%
20% -39.0% 25% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$76 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,540
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses269 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$453
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 507
History coverage37d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 35¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $31 +$63 +206%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $62 +$35 +57%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $28 −$28 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $22 +$1 +5%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $47 +$13 +27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $32 +$218 +669%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 +$43 +70%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$50 +49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $54 +$12 +21%
Spread: SC Recife (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$10 +52%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$53 +150%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $98 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $19 +$3 +16%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +105%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $72 +$72 +100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$3 +6%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 +$33 +133%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $16 +$9 +57%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $74 +$12 +16%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $57 +$17 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Kirkov/Miedler vs Romboli/Smith Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 35¢ $46 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $77 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $16 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $39 25h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 80¢ $101 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $51 25h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 62¢ $28 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $62 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ $31 25h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 20¢ $2 26h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 20¢ $8 26h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 95¢ $22 26h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 46¢ $22 27h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $3 28h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $0 28h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $0 28h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $4 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $47 28h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $12 33h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $32 33h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $61 33h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 47¢ $48 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $74 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 82¢ $54 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 24¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.88 (match) · 1653 history records