trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 13 | -54.7% | -59.0% | 23% | 0% | -24.3% |
| all | 25 | +2.3% | -7.4% | 56% | 44% | +0.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.4% | 44% | +0.2% |
| 10% | -16.3% | 40% | -9.4% |
| 15% | -24.4% | 32% | -18.1% |
| 20% | -31.8% | 32% | -26.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $75 | $75 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 91¢ | 94¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 3¢ | $6 | $1 | −$5 (-82%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 18 | $2,171 | −$167 | -8% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 | Apr 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? | Apr 23 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Spread: Ravens (-3.5) | Apr 14 | $53 | −$53 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Patriots | Apr 14 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Spread: Indiana (-7.5) | Apr 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Jaguars | Apr 14 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. California Golden Bears | Apr 14 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Spread: Eagles (-4.5) | Apr 14 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Pr | Apr 14 | $10 | −$1 | -14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 14 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 202 | Apr 14 | $10 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? | Apr 14 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | Jan 25 | $50 | +$42 | +85% |
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Jan 25 | $80 | +$133 | +166% |
| Spread: Texans (-3.5) | Jan 14 | $100 | +$133 | +133% |
| Washington Huskies vs. Indiana Hoosiers | Jan 11 | $57 | +$15 | +27% |
| Bradley Braves vs. Murray State Racers | Jan 11 | $50 | +$26 | +52% |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Jan 04 | $100 | +$69 | +70% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Jan 04 | $200 | +$151 | +75% |
| Spread: Georgia (-2.5) | Dec 27 | $50 | +$54 | +108% |
| Auburn Tigers vs. Arizona Wildcats | Dec 27 | $200 | +$50 | +25% |
| Kentucky Wildcats vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | Dec 06 | $50 | +$9 | +18% |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. TCU Horned Frogs | Dec 06 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Spread: Lions (-3.5) | Dec 05 | $100 | +$113 | +113% |