Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156d…a4ec sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$192 (+3%) realized +$235 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate70%59W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$227
crypto 29% +$370
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 84 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 37% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 37% -7.2%
10% -19.9% 31% -16.1%
15% -27.6% 26% -24.2%
20% -34.7% 20% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$76 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$235
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses59 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage152d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 8¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 1? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 29? Apr 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 29? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 16? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 10? Apr 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 20 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 25 Mar 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 26? Mar 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 23? Mar 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 20 Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 19? Mar 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 20 Mar 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 18? Mar 22 $7 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 15? Mar 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 16? Mar 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 12 Mar 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on March 9? Mar 10 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 7? Mar 10 $6 $0 +8%
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 20 Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stag Mar 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. 76ers Mar 04 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET Mar 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Feb 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5AM ET Feb 28 $19 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 24 $201 −$195 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 24 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 24 $155 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 24 $65 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 24 $119 +$31 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 24 $377 +$119 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 24 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 24 $44 +$56 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 24 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 23 $285 +$215 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11PM ET Feb 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2AM ET Feb 22 $29 +$41 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2AM ET Feb 21 $72 +$128 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2AM ET Feb 20 $36 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8PM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $12 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 65d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 10? BUY No 98¢ $8 71d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $6 77d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 81d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 83d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 29? BUY No 99¢ $6 84d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 26? BUY No 99¢ $6 86d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 25 BUY No 100¢ $5 87d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 23? BUY No 98¢ $6 89d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 20 BUY No 99¢ $7 92d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 20 BUY No 100¢ $6 93d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 19? BUY No 99¢ $6 94d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 18? BUY No 99¢ $7 95d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 96d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on March 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 98d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 12 BUY No 100¢ $6 100d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on March 9? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 103d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 7? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $5 106d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 106d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 96¢ $9 106d
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 20 BUY No 100¢ $13 106d
Spurs vs. 76ers BUY Spurs 99¢ $20 107d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stag BUY Liquid 93¢ $9 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 109d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 58¢ $23 109d
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets BUY Trail Blazers 16¢ $8 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.54 · official $10.38 · 302 history records