Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156c…afd3 other 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%29W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$3
other 25% −$2
politics 20% −$2
crypto 8% $0
economics 8% $0
world 5% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 224 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses29 / 195
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage169d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $292 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $166 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $67 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $29 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 26 $290 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 25 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 23 $119 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 22 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $44 $0 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $93 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $81 −$2 -2%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 12 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $29 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $30 33d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 79d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $17 80d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 80d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $32 80d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $32 80d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $36 80d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $36 80d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 80d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 80d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $39 80d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $39 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $36 81d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $36 81d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 81d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 81d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $29 81d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $12 81d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $5 81d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $12 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $40 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $40 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.51 · official $28.51 (match) · 823 history records