Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156b…ac31 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 24% +$1
politics 13% −$2
crypto 5% −$1
weather 3% −$2
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 8% -9.8%
all 60 -3.8% -12.9% 43% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -10.1%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.7%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage471d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 −$2 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $9 $0 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 24 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will BTC close above $98K on May 16? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 09 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 08 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $2 +$1 +45%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $34 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $13 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $21 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $37 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $35 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $36 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $19 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $17 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $38 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $8 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $3 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.93 · official $33.93 (match) · 184 history records