Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x156b…e1fd weather 678 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+2%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate80%540W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$60
14 days−$155
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$152
crypto 2% −$40
sports 1% −$2
world 0% −$7
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.3% -2.0% 90% 81% -4.7%
≤30d 143 +8.4% -1.9% 92% 82% -8.6%
≤90d 675 -1.8% -11.1% 80% 77% -8.3%
all 675 -1.8% -11.1% 80% 77% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 77% -8.3%
10% -19.6% 17% -17.1%
15% -27.4% 5% -25.1%
20% -34.5% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses540 / 135
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)675 / 678
History coverage75d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $166 $164 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 90¢ 99¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 18 $77 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $146 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $143 +$18 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $245 −$38 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $206 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $168 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $104 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $128 +$15 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $300 −$299 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 05 $73 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $330 +$55 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $269 +$33 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 01 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 30? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 31? Jun 01 $106 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $58 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $202 +$23 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $47 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 30? May 31 $188 +$20 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $166 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $45 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $45 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $41 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $36 13h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $36 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $34 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $39 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $38 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL No 100¢ $28 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 86¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 86¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 86¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 86¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $18 31h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $11 32h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $24 33h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $159 36h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.82 · official $255.77 (match) · 1895 history records