Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156b…4b9e other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
other 24% $0
politics 17% $0
crypto 11% +$1
tech 6% +$1
sports 3% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 37 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage451d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $37 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $12 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $9 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 06 $17 $0 -3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 04 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Jul 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 02 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $24 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $12 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $37 27h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $33 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $22 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records