Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x156b…0f5b politics 1214 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (396 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,488 (-121%) realized −$2,488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%21W / 1238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day395.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$15
other 34% −$15
world 7% −$1
sports 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$3
economics 4% +$1
tech 3% −$2
finance 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (396 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 573 -5.2% -14.2% 2% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 1259 -3.9% -13.1% 2% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 1259 -3.9% -13.1% 2% 0% -11.7%
all 1259 -3.9% -13.1% 2% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover395.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 0% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -20.1%
15% -29.0% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$2,488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses21 / 1238
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1259 / 1214
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day395.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 16 $1 −$1 -172%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 16 $1 −$28 -5212%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 16 $0 −$23 -5615%
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 16 $0 $0 -97%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 16 $0 $0 -6%
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 pa Jun 16 $0 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 16 $0 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 16 $0 −$27 -16768%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 16 $0 $0 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 16 $0 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 16 $0 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -130%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 -104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $1 2m
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2m
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 2m
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 2m
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 2m
Will Kiki Rice win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 99¢ $1 3m
Will Flau'jae Johnson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 93¢ $1 3m
Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 99¢ $1 4m
Will Gabby Williams win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? SELL No 97¢ $1 4m
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential SELL Yes 75¢ $1 4m
Will Nneka Ogwumike win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? SELL No 94¢ $1 5m
Will Flau'jae Johnson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 99¢ $1 7m
Will Nneka Ogwumike win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY No 100¢ $1 7m
Will Gabby Williams win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY No 99¢ $1 7m
Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 100¢ $1 7m
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY Yes 77¢ $1 7m
Will Kiki Rice win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 99¢ $1 7m
Will Sonny Gray strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regula SELL No 99¢ $1 8m
Will Taj Bradley lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 97¢ $1 9m
Will Sal Stewart lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 95¢ $1 10m
Will Hunter Brown strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regu SELL No 99¢ $1 11m
Will Garrett Crochet strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB r SELL No 97¢ $1 12m
Will Logan Webb lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 99¢ $1 12m
Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL No 99¢ $1 13m
Will Taj Bradley lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY No 99¢ $1 13m
Will Sonny Gray strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regula BUY No 100¢ $1 13m
Will Hunter Brown strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regu BUY No 100¢ $1 13m
Will Sal Stewart lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? BUY No 99¢ $1 13m
Will Garrett Crochet strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB r BUY No 100¢ $1 13m
Will Logan Webb lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY No 100¢ $1 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.87 · official $5.89 · 3500 history records