Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1568…c958 sports 710 markets active 1h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,835 (-5%) realized −$15,766 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%339W / 370L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1,033est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days+$237
14 days+$643
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$3,676
other 19% −$4,861
culture 5% −$3,681
politics 3% −$1,120
world 2% −$2,938
crypto 1% +$82
economics 0% −$533
weather 0% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +47.2% +33.2% 100% 100% +33.3%
≤30d 104 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 421 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 40% -29.4%
all 709 -8.4% -17.1% 48% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 44% -13.8%
10% -25.1% 40% -22.1%
15% -32.3% 34% -29.6%
20% -38.9% 28% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$618) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$308 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$15,766
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses339 / 370
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,033
Open positions1
Markets (closed)709 / 710
History coverage333d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 30¢ $168 $98 −$69 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$29 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $280 +$140 +50%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $108 +$128 +118%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $145 +$61 +42%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 07 $159 −$156 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $169 +$139 +82%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $149 +$118 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $148 −$147 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$60 +59%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $212 −$210 -99%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) Jun 06 $94 −$92 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $559 −$551 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $508 +$533 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $252 −$71 -28%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $253 −$34 -13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $354 +$205 +58%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $495 +$319 +64%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $300 −$296 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $360 −$356 -99%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 05 $270 +$386 +143%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $253 +$147 +58%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $402 +$85 +21%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $143 −$141 -98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 05 $261 −$259 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $255 −$254 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $501 −$500 -100%
Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 04 $359 +$362 +101%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $282 +$492 +174%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 04 $102 +$164 +161%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $343 +$577 +168%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $253 +$144 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $244 +$178 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $46 −$45 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $203 +$91 +45%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $305 +$299 +98%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 04 $440 −$431 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $336 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $220 +$136 +62%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $169 +$105 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $518 −$511 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $254 +$246 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $71 −$70 -99%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $103 −$6 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $469 +$231 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $170 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $280 23h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $236 8d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY G2 45¢ $108 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $206 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $145 9d
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $102 9d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes 35¢ $159 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $309 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $169 9d
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $266 9d
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $149 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 72¢ $148 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $161 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $153 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $101 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $212 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $151 10d
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $94 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $559 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG 100¢ $1,041 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 48¢ $508 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $181 11d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) SELL Cobolli 49¢ $219 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $559 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 63¢ $354 12d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) BUY Cobolli 55¢ $253 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 68¢ $252 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.27 · official $98.27 (match) · 2812 history records