Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1566…07e6 crypto 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%130W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$11
sports 37% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -8.7% -17.4% 35% 35% -17.6%
≤30d 251 +5.3% -4.8% 39% 39% -11.4%
≤90d 334 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% -12.8%
all 334 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 39% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 39% -12.8%
10% -16.1% 39% -21.1%
15% -24.3% 38% -28.7%
20% -31.7% 37% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses130 / 204
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage54d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -64%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $2 +$5 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -85%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $1 +$2 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $1 +$2 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +101%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset May 29 $1 +$3 +261%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $9 −$8 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 599 history records