Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1563…a166
sports · 16 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage28d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Team Liquid 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: SU Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs SU Esports 36¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Kansas City Royals 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $30 −$3 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $7 $0 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5 $0 -6%
LoL: SU Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $3 $0 -8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $3 −$2 -76%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Grou May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% −$6
sports 11% −$17
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 0m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 0m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 0m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 26m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 28m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 29m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 31m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 47m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 47m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 47m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 48m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 50m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 51m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 52m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 53m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 55m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 55m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 0% 0% -33.4%
≤30d 15 -49.7% -54.5% 0% 0% -37.7%
≤90d 15 -49.7% -54.5% 0% 0% -37.7%
all 15 -49.7% -54.5% 0% 0% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.5% 0% -37.7%
10% -58.9% 0% -43.7%
15% -62.8% 0% -49.1%
20% -66.5% 0% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records