Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x155f…c61e crypto 42 markets active 6d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-20%) realized −$271 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$121
crypto 34% +$51
world 19% −$220
other 11% +$23
finance 1% +$46
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -22.5% -29.9% 30% 30% -24.5%
≤90d 40 +35.1% +22.3% 32% 32% -31.9%
all 40 +35.1% +22.3% 32% 32% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 32% -31.9%
10% +10.6% 32% -38.4%
15% -0.1% 30% -44.4%
20% -9.9% 30% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$32 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage36d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 39¢ $10 $56 +$46 (+457%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $10 +$11 +105%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $133 −$129 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $10 +$17 +159%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $10 +$133 +1290%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 07 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 07 $31 +$65 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 07 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $20 +$85 +414%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $21 +$107 +521%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 06 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 06 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 06 $52 −$37 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 06 $11 +$66 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 06 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 06 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 18d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 4¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 35d
Thunder vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 7¢ $1 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 19¢ $113 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $20 37d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 18¢ $20 37d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $20 37d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 37d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 37d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 4¢ $21 37d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 38d
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 38d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.16 · official $73.77 (match) · 69 history records