Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x1556…b722 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+10%) realized +$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$292
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$410
other 8% −$122
crypto 3% −$80
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -3.9% -13.0% 31% 31% +2.9%
≤30d 84 -8.5% -17.2% 30% 30% -0.8%
≤90d 84 -8.5% -17.2% 30% 30% -0.8%
all 84 -8.5% -17.2% 30% 30% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 30% -0.8%
10% -25.1% 30% -10.3%
15% -32.3% 30% -19.0%
20% -39.0% 30% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$22 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 59
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$18 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$44 +216%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $132 +$223 +168%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $186 +$195 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $24 +$48 +197%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $87 +$72 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $112 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$68 +134%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$21 +206%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$42 +83%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $17 +$13 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$43 +420%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $46 +$55 +120%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $122 −$66 -54%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $21 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $135 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $24 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $87 39h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.96 · official $49.96 (match) · 134 history records