Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1556…ae04 crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$132 (+10%) realized +$231 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$211
14 days−$101
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -25.1% -32.2% 26% 11% -29.1%
≤30d 110 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 17% -16.9%
≤90d 110 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 17% -16.9%
all 110 -17.2% -25.1% 32% 17% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 17% -16.9%
10% -32.2% 15% -24.9%
15% -38.8% 14% -32.1%
20% -44.8% 13% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage19d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$47 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $48 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $38 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $39 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $47 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $24 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $24 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.74 (match) · 406 history records