Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x1555…2862 crypto 2171 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$217 (-3%) realized −$216 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%1209W / 543L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$435
14 days+$798
30 days+$893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$976
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 580 +30.1% +17.7% 68% 68% +12.7%
≤30d 1752 +23.9% +12.1% 69% 60% +1.4%
≤90d 1752 +23.9% +12.1% 69% 60% +1.4%
all 1752 +23.9% +12.1% 69% 60% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 60% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 58% -8.3%
15% -8.5% 56% -17.2%
20% -17.4% 56% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1209 / 543
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1752 / 2171
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 50¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $1.25 (match) · 3500 history records