Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1553…3bc2 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$6
other 30% −$3
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 19 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 11% -8.7%
all 44 -6.0% -14.9% 57% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 7% -9.3%
10% -23.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -30.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage397d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $59 −$3 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $127 +$2 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $27 −$2 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $67 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -29%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 02 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $3 $0 +14%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $4 $0 -2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 31 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? May 30 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $16 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $50 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $66 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $2.27 (match) · 184 history records