Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x154f…207a sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$32
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤90d 3 -12.5% -20.8% 67% 67% -17.9%
all 22 +16.1% +5.1% 59% 55% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 55% -13.5%
10% -5.0% 45% -21.8%
15% -14.2% 36% -29.3%
20% -22.6% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +108% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$33 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage215d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 21 $39 +$11 +27%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $34 −$34 -99%
Raptors vs. Bulls Apr 30 $37 +$13 +35%
Knicks vs. Kings Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Mar 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Mar 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 04 $33 +$17 +52%
Celtics vs. Rockets Feb 26 $18 +$32 +178%
Raptors vs. Thunder Jan 31 $11 +$49 +456%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 22 $42 +$8 +19%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 22 $35 +$25 +72%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Jan 14 $34 +$16 +47%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 14 $22 +$28 +122%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 05 $43 +$27 +64%
Wizards vs. Spurs Dec 21 $44 +$6 +12%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Dec 18 $19 +$31 +163%
Kings vs. Thunder Dec 11 $56 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $39 40d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 68¢ $34 52d
Raptors vs. Bulls BUY Raptors 74¢ $37 95d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 26¢ $13 109d
Hawks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 53¢ $26 109d
Timberwolves vs. Clippers BUY Timberwolves 66¢ $33 115d
Celtics vs. Rockets BUY Celtics 36¢ $18 137d
Bulls vs. Heat BUY Heat 65¢ $32 141d
Spurs vs. Hornets BUY Spurs 62¢ $31 141d
Raptors vs. Thunder BUY Raptors 18¢ $11 147d
Bulls vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 78¢ $55 150d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $34 150d
Wizards vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 84¢ $42 158d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Raptors 58¢ $35 158d
Knicks vs. Kings BUY Knicks 81¢ $40 158d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 45¢ $22 167d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 68¢ $34 167d
Hawks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 61¢ $43 169d
Bulls vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 64¢ $32 182d
Wizards vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 89¢ $44 185d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 38¢ $19 192d
Kings vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 93¢ $56 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.74 · official $34.75 (match) · 44 history records