Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x154d…24d1 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%36W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days−$1
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$9
other 11% −$11
finance 2% −$4
politics 2% +$1
sports 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 17% -7.9%
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 25 +0.4% -9.1% 32% 4% -9.9%
all 84 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses36 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage471d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $143 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $128 +$3 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $210 −$3 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $59 −$3 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,067 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $145 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $545 −$3 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $132 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $162 −$4 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 −$2 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $148 −$11 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $152 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $167 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $211 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $1,058 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $17 $0 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 06 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $9 $0 +5%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 22 $8 $0 +3%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $134 56m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $20 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $101 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $102 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $23 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $146 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $143 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $131 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $128 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $50 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.63 · official $133.63 (match) · 290 history records