Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x154c…2af6 politics 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-27%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$46
world 24% −$1
politics 10% −$6
culture 10% $0
other 7% −$4
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -38.8% -44.7% 12% 0% -43.7%
≤90d 8 -38.8% -44.7% 12% 0% -43.7%
all 8 -38.8% -44.7% 12% 0% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 0% -43.7%
10% -50.0% 0% -49.1%
15% -54.8% 0% -54.0%
20% -59.2% 0% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage36d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? May 30 $4 $0 +4%
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? May 25 $15 −$6 -40%
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? May 25 $3 $0 -4%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $15 −$4 -24%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? May 25 $22 $0 -1%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $100 −$46 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down $5 18d
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes $3 22d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 27d
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 27d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 27d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? SELL No 47¢ $22 27d
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27d
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes $1 28d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 51¢ $54 28d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 28d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 29d
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes $1 29d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $11 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $0 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $1 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $2 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $1 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $1 29d
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 29d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $1 29d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 29d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 29d
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.79 · official $49.79 (match) · 41 history records