Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x154b…5e46 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-18%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$5
sports 23% −$21
world 13% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 27% -25.2%
≤30d 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 27% -25.2%
≤90d 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 27% -25.2%
all 11 -33.5% -39.9% 36% 27% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 27% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -45.6% 27% -32.4%
15% -50.9% 27% -38.9%
20% -55.7% 18% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -57%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$25 +61%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$10 -37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $4 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.49 · official $24.49 (match) · 32 history records