Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1547…d066 world 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25,451 (+9%) realized +$22,405 · open +$3,046
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate83%134W / 28L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,382per market
Trades / day81.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$2,995
14 days+$2,288
30 days+$4,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$5,541
other 17% +$3,992
politics 11% +$1,415
crypto 7% +$805
tech 2% +$188
finance 1% +$148
culture 0% +$61
sports 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -5.0% -14.0% 83% 17% -5.6%
≤30d 133 +3.1% -6.7% 80% 24% -6.4%
≤90d 162 +12.3% +1.6% 83% 28% -4.8%
all 162 +12.3% +1.6% 83% 28% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 28% -4.8%
10% -8.2% 13% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -17.0% 12% -22.2%
20% -25.2% 9% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$717) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$175 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$43,060
Realized+$22,405
Unrealized+$3,046
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses134 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions59
Markets (closed)162 / 208
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$1,382
Trades / day81.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $15,168 $16,622 +$1,454 (+10%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,503 $4,648 +$145 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,936 $1,996 +$60 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 82¢ $1,748 $1,980 +$232 (+13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,755 $1,750 −$5 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 72¢ 85¢ $1,017 $1,196 +$180 (+18%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 84¢ $724 $1,010 +$287 (+40%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $870 $962 +$92 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $924 $908 −$16 (-2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $713 $761 +$48 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $723 $748 +$26 (+4%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $609 $696 +$87 (+14%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $633 $684 +$51 (+8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 93¢ $548 $558 +$10 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $497 $499 +$2 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $480 $497 +$17 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 44¢ $429 $484 +$55 (+13%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 96¢ 94¢ $480 $472 −$7 (-1%)
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $377 $439 +$62 (+17%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? No 24¢ 78¢ $134 $431 +$298 (+222%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $403 $417 +$14 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $418 $396 −$22 (-5%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $355 $372 +$17 (+5%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $340 $344 +$5 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 51¢ 64¢ $255 $318 +$62 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 17 $88 −$85 -96%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $44 +$7 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $706 +$16 +2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $717 +$25 +4%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 16 $368 +$54 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $3,751 +$94 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $165 +$198 +120%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $449 +$58 +13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2,126 +$174 +8%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 15 $647 +$9 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,542 −$517 -34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $625 +$10 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6,010 +$634 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $5,431 −$46 -1%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $454 +$46 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $393 +$4 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $6,814 +$132 +2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $1,233 +$46 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $30,145 +$2,249 +8%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $509 +$6 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $396 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $111 −$73 -65%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $479 +$31 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $387 +$4 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 11 $440 +$10 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $957 +$31 +3%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $245 +$5 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 11 $172 +$24 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $250 +$50 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 10 $377 +$7 +2%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $292 −$115 -39%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $385 +$5 +1%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $512 +$74 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $368 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $177 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $492 +$6 +1%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 09 $385 +$25 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $391 −$158 -40%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,024 +$62 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 20m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 25m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $328 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 74¢ $43 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 74¢ $142 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $83 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $69 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $95 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $2 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $294 3h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $250 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $255 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 81¢ $79 8h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 52¢ $260 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $73 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 67¢ $266 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $233 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 11h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 12h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $184 12h
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 82¢ $73 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,060.31 · official $43,052.31 (match) · 3500 history records