Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
15 0x1546…b16c other 16 markets active 179d ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9,890 (+7%) realized +$9,890 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$9,377per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$9,269
sports 3% +$621
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 16 +32.1% +19.5% 62% 31% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.5% 31% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here +8.0% 6% -12.8%
15% -2.4% 6% -21.2%
20% -12.0% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,000 vs −$22 · ×45.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×91.11 per $1 lost it wins $91.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,890
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage57d
Avg bet$9,377
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? Dec 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5? Dec 21 $504 +$88 +18%
Will the fight end in Round 3? Dec 21 $537 +$67 +12%
Will the fight end in Round 1? Dec 21 $3,143 +$570 +18%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Dec 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 17 $5,258 +$6 +0%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? Dec 17 $31,937 +$2,050 +6%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 17 $63,136 +$3,506 +6%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Dec 17 $25,923 +$3,025 +12%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Dec 16 $18,480 +$687 +4%
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 09 $0 +$1 +692%
Will Travis Kelce rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 09 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 08 $1 $0 -38%
Will Pope Francis rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 08 $8 −$3 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5? BUY Yes 97¢ $144 179d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5? BUY Yes 85¢ $211 179d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5? BUY Yes 76¢ $149 179d
Will the fight end in Round 3? BUY No 89¢ $537 179d
Will the fight end in Round 1? BUY No 89¢ $25 179d
Will the fight end in Round 1? BUY No 79¢ $40 179d
Will the fight end in Round 1? BUY No 86¢ $1,046 179d
Will the fight end in Round 1? BUY No 84¢ $1,506 179d
Will the fight end in Round 1? BUY No 85¢ $106 179d
Will the fight end in Round 1? BUY No 84¢ $420 179d
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? BUY Paul 13¢ $104 179d
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem SELL No 97¢ $12 179d
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem SELL Yes $0 179d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 181d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 181d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 181d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $19,901 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $258 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,448 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,962 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $935 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? SELL No 15¢ $35 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? SELL No 15¢ $8 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? SELL No 15¢ $10 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? SELL No 15¢ $10 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? SELL No 15¢ $2 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? SELL No 15¢ $86 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,342 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,363 182d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $147 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 274 history records