Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1546…778b weather 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,269 (-2%) realized −$4,261 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate47%246W / 276L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day80.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$1,959
sports 1% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 4% -16.3%
≤30d 439 -18.5% -26.3% 48% 11% -12.5%
≤90d 522 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 12% -13.0%
all 522 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 12% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 12% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 8% -21.3%
15% -40.2% 7% -28.9%
20% -46.0% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,680
Realized−$4,261
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses246 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)522 / 414
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$415
Trades / day80.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $967 $971 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $446 $450 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $83 $88 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 46¢ 11¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 17 $6 −$11 -178%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Jun 17 $11 +$24 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 3? Jun 17 $11 −$13 -116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? Jun 17 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1? Jun 17 $974 −$1,041 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 26? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 24? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 7? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 26? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 24? Jun 17 $31 −$36 -117%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 25? Jun 17 $49 −$35 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28? Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 24? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 25? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 27? Jun 17 $50 −$119 -240%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3? Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 29? Jun 17 $6 −$8 -129%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 1? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 7? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -190%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 7? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 7? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 24? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 28? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 25? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 26? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 1? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $25 14m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 24m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 24m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 25m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 31¢ $11 57m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,680.23 · official $1,673.28 (match) · 3500 history records