Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1545…dc92 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$14
crypto 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -15.1%
≤30d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 8 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -15.1%
all 8 -2.8% -12.1% 25% 0% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -15.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -23.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -30.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $2 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 22 $133 −$4 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 22 $60 −$11 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records