Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x1541…a61f other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$266
14 days+$266
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$271
sports 35% −$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.4% -2.8% 75% 50% +46.7%
≤30d 5 -14.1% -22.2% 60% 40% +46.0%
≤90d 5 -14.1% -22.2% 60% 40% +46.0%
all 6 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 33% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -8.0%
10% -41.4% 33% -16.8%
15% -47.1% 33% -24.8%
20% -52.3% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$88 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage130d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $393 +$265 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $9 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $253 −$253 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $658 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $388 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 100¢ $5 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $2 26d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 93¢ $2 26d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 94¢ $7 26d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY FURIA 35¢ $253 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.08 · official $63.06 (match) · 16 history records