Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x1541…2b9f world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$6
other 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 54% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 54% 0% -8.1%
all 22 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.3%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.25 per $1 lost it wins $11.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage467d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 +$5 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $14 $0 -2%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $26 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $7 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $41 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $53 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $53 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $53 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $33 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $21 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $26 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $37 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.04 · official $43.04 (match) · 69 history records