Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x153b…68dd politics 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 716d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 716d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$599 (+0%) realized +$1,456 · open −$857
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%151W / 155L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 716d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$938
world 20% +$1,438
other 15% −$1,155
crypto 9% +$266
economics 3% −$957
tech 3% −$439
sports 1% −$98
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 306 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -10.3%
10% -24.5% 22% -18.9%
15% -31.8% 16% -26.7%
20% -38.5% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$116 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

716d coverage
Net worth$2,572
Realized+$1,456
Unrealized−$857
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses151 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)306 / 310
History coverage716d ⚠
Avg bet$411
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3,400 $2,550 −$850 (-25%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump veto a bill in 2025? Mar 15 $5 +$52 +1150%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Mar 15 $820 +$180 +22%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Mar 15 $278 −$19 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 27 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner Jan 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Nov 06 $158 +$257 +163%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $3,512 +$189 +5%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 30 $93 −$18 -19%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 30 $167 +$82 +49%
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on Sep 25 $5 +$2 +31%
James Comey indicted before October? Sep 25 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $111 −$101 -91%
Scorigami in NFL Week 3? Sep 23 $1 +$1 +82%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31? Sep 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Sep 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Sep 20 $149 −$32 -22%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Sep 18 $85 +$20 +24%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Sep 18 $222 +$28 +12%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $100 −$26 -26%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 23 $820 −$622 -76%
Ethereum above $2,400 on June 13? Jun 30 $26 −$26 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 30 $938 −$840 -90%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 30 $368 +$132 +36%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 30 $1,410 +$590 +42%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Jun 26 $592 −$217 -37%
Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? Jun 11 $121 −$121 -100%
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? Jun 11 $253 −$253 -100%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? Jun 11 $989 −$100 -10%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 11 $363 −$214 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? Jun 11 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? May 07 $121 −$121 -100%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 07 $839 +$467 +56%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th May 07 $4,480 +$520 +12%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 02 $268 −$268 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 02 $141 +$67 +48%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 02 $732 +$5 +1%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 02 $3,175 +$732 +23%
FDA revokes polio vaccine in Trump's first 100 days? May 02 $270 +$30 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $41 59m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $63 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $16 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $14 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 139d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $9 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $39 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $20 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 140d
Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner BUY Spizzirri 9¢ $9 143d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $500 194d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 221d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 221d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,492 223d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,105 230d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,083 230d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $21 230d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 88¢ $165 230d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,347 230d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,000 250d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close BUY Yes 2¢ $0 252d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close BUY Yes 2¢ $0 252d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close BUY Yes 2¢ $0 258d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close BUY Yes 2¢ $0 258d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,571.91 · official $2,571.91 (match) · 3500 history records