Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

15 0x1538…044f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$89 (+9%) realized +$89 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-10.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-1.3%	-10.7%	56%	56%	+0.3%
≤30d	9	-1.3%	-10.7%	56%	56%	+0.3%
≤90d	9	-1.3%	-10.7%	56%	56%	+0.3%
all	9	-1.3%	-10.7%	56%	56%	+0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.7%	56%	+0.3%
10%	-19.2%	44%	-9.3%
15%	-27.0%	44%	-18.1%
20%	-34.2%	44%	-26.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$70 vs −$68 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$224

Realized+$89

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage4d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	58¢	58¢	$140	$141	+$1 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	36¢	36¢	$84	$83	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$28	−$27	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$56	−$55	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$171	−$167	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$127	+$24	+19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$154	+$212	+137%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$23	−$22	-97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$92	+$49	+53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$61	+$39	+63%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$24	+$28	+116%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$86	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$41	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	35¢	$26	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$29	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$28	15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$56	26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$68	26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$102	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$25	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$102	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	26¢	$23	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$103	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$92	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	60¢	$61	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$24	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.04 · official $224.04 (match) · 22 history records