Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1538…8676 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$41
world 5% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 42% -16.3%
≤30d 38 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 42% -16.3%
≤90d 38 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 42% -16.3%
all 38 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 42% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 42% -16.3%
10% -17.5% 42% -24.3%
15% -25.5% 42% -31.6%
20% -32.8% 39% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$45 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$92 +91%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$59 +73%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$54 +262%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$7 -24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$27 +89%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $55 −$55 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$44 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$89 +88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$44 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$45 -89%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $81 +$38 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$42 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$42 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$42 +206%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 −$6 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +238%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $41 +$35 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 3h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 4h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 26¢ $23 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $81 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $31 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $51 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $30 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $25 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $30 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $66 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 4¢ $6 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $51 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $36 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $25 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $29 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records