Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1536…3ca5 sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-4%) realized −$117 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%110W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$76
crypto 2% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +9.1% -1.3% 69% 67% -5.4%
≤30d 145 +0.5% -9.1% 70% 49% -15.1%
≤90d 153 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 47% -13.7%
all 153 +1.1% -8.5% 72% 47% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 47% -13.7%
10% -17.2% 27% -22.0%
15% -25.2% 18% -29.5%
20% -32.6% 11% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses110 / 43
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions6
Markets (closed)153 / 159
History coverage31d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 85¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 63¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 85¢ 80¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 62¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 60¢ 14¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3 $0 +18%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $3 $0 +17%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $3 $0 +17%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $3 $0 +17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaur Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $3 $0 +17%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Fritz Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Set 2 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $4 +$4 +114%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $3 $0 +17%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz Jun 13 $3 +$7 +276%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs Tiafoe Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Majchrzak Jun 12 $3 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $5 +$10 +188%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $6 +$9 +146%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $2 +$2 +119%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $2 +$1 +79%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $2 +$1 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 63¢ $2 45m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 62¢ $2 51m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 85¢ $3 56m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 85¢ $3 58m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 60¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 85¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 79¢ $2 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 55¢ $4 2h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 70¢ $2 20h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 84¢ $3 20h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 46¢ $5 24h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 58¢ $2 24h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 85¢ $3 24h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 85¢ $3 46h
Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs Minaur BUY Minaur 71¢ $3 46h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 82¢ $3 46h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 64¢ $2 47h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 51¢ $5 47h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 85¢ $3 47h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 69¢ $2 47h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Fritz BUY Fritz 43¢ $3 47h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 64¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 68¢ $2 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 85¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 35¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 85¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 83¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Aleksandar Vukic 67¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 63¢ $2 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Marc-Andrea Huesler 58¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.98 · official $10.99 (match) · 313 history records