Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1534…2f69 crypto 194 markets active 3h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$383 (+4%) realized +$383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate70%135W / 59L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$320
14 days−$320
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$252
other 1% −$6
weather 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -11.7% -20.1% 62% 53% -23.3%
≤30d 64 -11.7% -20.1% 62% 53% -23.3%
≤90d 194 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 52% -7.5%
all 194 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 52% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 52% -7.5%
10% -16.6% 38% -16.4%
15% -24.6% 25% -24.5%
20% -32.0% 15% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses135 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage37d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 433 history records