Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x1533…3141 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$758 (+15%) realized +$1,257 · open −$499

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate75%12W / 4L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$295per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$933

7 days+$1,187

14 days+$1,191

30 days+$1,191

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+24.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+36.8%	+23.8%	73%	53%	+14.3%
≤30d	16	+37.3%	+24.3%	75%	56%	+14.4%
≤90d	16	+37.3%	+24.3%	75%	56%	+14.4%
all	16	+37.3%	+24.3%	75%	56%	+14.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.3%	56%	+14.4%
10%	+12.4%	50%	+3.4%
15%	+1.5%	44%	-6.6%
20%	-8.4%	38%	-15.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late +58% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$137 vs −$115 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$1,257

Unrealized−$499

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses12 / 4

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage7d

Avg bet$295

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	45¢	0¢	$500	$1	−$499 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 29	$501	+$476	+95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$10	+$18	+175%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$466	+$526	+113%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 29	$102	+$20	+20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$228	+$219	+96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed	Jun 28	$400	−$172	-43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$403	−$3	-1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$371	+$32	+9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$299	+$72	+24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$553	−$255	-46%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$527	+$27	+5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$310	+$217	+70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$289	+$22	+8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$29	−$29	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$13	+$17	+128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$9	+$4	+45%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$978	1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$501	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$508	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	26¢	$28	2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$992	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$317	5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	41¢	$122	5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$149	6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$447	26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	42¢	$98	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$131	34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed	SELL Spirit Academy	37¢	$228	37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Omega (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed	BUY Spirit Academy	64¢	$400	37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	62¢	$400	44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	61¢	$403	45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	94¢	$403	45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$371	45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$371	46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	80¢	$299	46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	29¢	$298	46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$553	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	90¢	$554	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$527	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$526	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$310	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	94¢	$310	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	87¢	$289	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$29	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.56 (match) · 35 history records