Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x1530…6aaa other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11,994 (+22%) realized +$11,994 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%131W / 113L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$421est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,905
7 days+$3,138
14 days+$7,881
30 days+$10,563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$2,501
sports 42% +$7,977
world 4% +$177
crypto 1% +$467
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 33% +2.0%
≤30d 171 +13.2% +2.4% 55% 45% +9.4%
≤90d 239 +14.3% +3.4% 54% 45% +9.1%
all 244 +14.2% +3.3% 54% 45% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 45% +9.1%
10% -6.6% 37% -1.3%
15% -15.6% 29% -10.8%
20% -23.9% 23% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$64 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,994
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses131 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$421
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage552d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $602 +$435 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 −$46 -20%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$15 +51%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $539 +$300 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $475 +$35 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,374 +$353 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $762 −$80 -10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $708 +$170 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $436 −$433 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $504 +$702 +139%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,148 +$178 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $216 +$38 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $318 +$232 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $566 +$209 +37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $221 −$216 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $403 +$228 +56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,843 −$188 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,479 +$171 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $450 +$815 +181%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$117 +194%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,274 +$130 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $506 +$289 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $483 +$406 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $445 −$432 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $251 −$246 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $73 +$21 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 +$23 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $65 +$123 +189%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $377 −$30 -8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $38 +$20 +51%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,037 −$84 -8%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-04-26? Jun 12 $141 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $283 +$7 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Georgia (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,037 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $602 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 60¢ $178 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $224 4h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 72¢ $11 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $839 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $539 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 52¢ $510 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $475 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $337 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 94¢ $320 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $190 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $28 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $200 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $1 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $98 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $14 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $7 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $17 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $157 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $548 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $482 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $17 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $33 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $50 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $100 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $762 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1494 history records