Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x1530…07d0 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$211 (+97%) realized +$211 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +77% what you keep after slip

Net edge+77%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$274

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+77.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+683.9%	+609.2%	100%	100%	+609.2%
≤90d	1	+683.9%	+609.2%	100%	100%	+609.2%
all	4	+96.0%	+77.3%	25%	25%	+177.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+77.3%	25%	+177.4%
10%	+60.3%	25%	+150.9%
15%	+44.8%	25%	+126.7%
20%	+30.6%	25%	+104.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +684% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +96% · $-wt +207% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$274 vs −$21 · ×13.18 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage

Net worth$112

Realized+$211

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage132d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$112	$112	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	May 31	$40	+$274	+684%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?	Mar 21	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?	Mar 19	$30	−$30	-100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Feb 10	$25	−$25	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$115	2h
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	114d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	132d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	BUY Yes	13¢	$40	132d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	6¢	$25	132d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.57 · official $111.57 (match) · 8 history records