Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x152f…a549
world · 87 markets active 7h ago
2.5score
+$108,112 +56%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$127,912 · open −$14,534
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 33 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,138
7 days−$7,909
14 days−$10,442
30 days−$28,950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11,500 $10,805 −$694 (-6%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $10,175 $9,038 −$1,137 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $6,297 $7,941 +$1,644 (+26%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 10¢ $8,895 $6,758 −$2,137 (-24%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $11,065 $6,045 −$5,020 (-45%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes $4,720 $2,384 −$2,336 (-49%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes $2,307 $1,358 −$949 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $750 $1,080 +$330 (+44%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,130 $1,049 −$81 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes $1,099 $738 −$361 (-33%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $500 $523 +$23 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes $1,050 $519 −$531 (-51%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $600 $518 −$82 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $530 $508 −$22 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $450 $504 +$54 (+12%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $1,300 $484 −$816 (-63%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $360 $406 +$46 (+13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $200 $170 −$30 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $200 $166 −$34 (-17%)
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes $313 $139 −$174 (-56%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? No 10¢ $490 $118 −$372 (-76%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? No 13¢ $350 $93 −$257 (-74%)
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title? Yes $150 $68 −$82 (-55%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 14¢ $425 $48 −$377 (-89%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? No 13¢ $135 $30 −$105 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6,878 −$2,719 -40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $200 −$42 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $500 +$622 +124%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $4,328 −$3,983 -92%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 05 $2,107 −$1,788 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $563 −$534 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $735 −$700 -95%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 01 $262 −$152 -58%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,301 −$1,098 -84%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? May 31 $100 −$45 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $3,000 −$785 -26%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 24 $300 +$125 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3,303 +$422 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $2,201 −$668 -30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 23 $100 −$71 -71%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $10,854 −$3,765 -35%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $699 −$587 -84%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $1,600 −$462 -29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $400 −$309 -77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $800 −$554 -69%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $35 −$30 -85%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 23 $675 −$648 -96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 23 $4,965 −$3,568 -72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $6,152 −$5,496 -89%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $617 −$278 -45%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 17 $922 −$671 -73%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 17 $400 −$32 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $514 −$101 -20%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? May 16 $859 −$732 -85%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 15 $1,000 −$143 -14%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? May 12 $3 $0 -14%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 12 $410 −$364 -89%
US x China Military clash before 2027? May 12 $300 −$93 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $3,001 −$826 -28%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? May 11 $400 −$68 -17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 11 $760 −$406 -54%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, May 11 $1,400 −$373 -27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? May 10 $420 −$407 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed May 10 $210 −$184 -87%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,190 −$200 -17%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3,878 −$1,100 -28%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 10 $4,127 −$443 -11%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $792 −$779 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $11,750 +$172,370 +1467%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $4,783 −$518 -11%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 05 $1,000 −$523 -52%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $189 −$183 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$140,156
politics 20% −$9,906
other 15% −$11,188
sports 4% −$2,700
crypto 2% −$966
economics 1% −$1,286
tech 0% −$732
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 25¢ $360 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $200 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3,000 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4,600 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $154 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4,004 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $500 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2,000 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $400 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4,500 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $4,904 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $150 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $158 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $490 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,500 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,122 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $864 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $100 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $900 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1,500 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $105 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $800 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $200 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $500 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $200 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $600 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $900 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $750 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.6% -29.9% 20% 20% -60.6%
≤30d 33 -54.3% -58.6% 9% 9% -56.0%
≤90d 54 -27.2% -34.1% 7% 7% +106.7%
all 54 -27.2% -34.1% 7% 7% +106.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 7% +106.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 6% +87.0%
15% -46.2% 6% +68.9%
20% -51.5% 4% +52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,602.51 · official $51,598.93 (match) · 459 history records