Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x152e…2767 politics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$2
politics 26% $0
other 21% $0
sports 14% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.2% -13.4% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 30% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 30% 10% -10.1%
all 50 -1.6% -10.9% 24% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage282d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $70 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 +$1 +38%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $33 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 19? Sep 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $17 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $6 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $8 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $16 7h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $33 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $7 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $26 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $10 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $23 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $33 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $33 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $2 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $31 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.87 · official $32.87 (match) · 146 history records