Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x152e…7144 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$5
other 17% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 5% +$2
economics 4% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.5%
all 39 -5.1% -14.2% 44% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage483d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $73 −$5 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $34 +$2 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $53 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -87%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 13 $11 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Optifye.ai pivot before April? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $1 $0 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Morgan State vs. Norfolk State Mar 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 20 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $28 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $34 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $16 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.97 · official $29.97 (match) · 111 history records