Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x152d…1b20 crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$687 (-4%) realized −$131 · open −$556
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%38W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$453
14 days−$410
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$428
other 30% −$291
sports 25% −$419
world 9% +$323
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -17.5% -25.3% 48% 48% -16.8%
≤30d 28 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 46% -6.6%
≤90d 28 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 46% -6.6%
all 90 -24.0% -31.3% 42% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 41% -10.9%
10% -37.8% 37% -19.4%
15% -43.8% 33% -27.2%
20% -49.3% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$106 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$556
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 52
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage221d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $460 $6 −$454 (-99%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 56¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$131 +128%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $240 +$99 +41%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $286 −$21 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $738 +$156 +21%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $181 −$180 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $279 −$275 -99%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $879 +$527 +60%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$202 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $77 +$23 +31%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $73 +$27 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $141 −$139 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $338 −$333 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $93 +$122 +132%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$120 +59%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $163 +$129 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $179 +$118 +66%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $373 −$367 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $475 +$241 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $807 −$379 -47%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $416 +$423 +102%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$101 -99%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $5 −$2 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $693 +$762 +110%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 1? Nov 30 $64 −$64 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Nov 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 30 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 30? Nov 30 $100 +$64 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 29? Nov 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Nov 28 $100 +$64 +64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Nov 27 $20 +$18 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 27? Nov 26 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 26? Nov 26 $234 +$183 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? Nov 26 $299 +$135 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $250 +$129 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $105 +$15 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 24? Nov 24 $200 +$115 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Nov 24 $300 +$135 +45%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Nov 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Nov 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 23? Nov 23 $250 +$112 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23? Nov 23 $174 +$76 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 22? Nov 22 $389 +$79 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $232 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $339 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $240 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $25 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $265 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $186 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 14h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $101 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 43¢ $102 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $304 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $894 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $738 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $112 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $102 34h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $1 35h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $3 35h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $1 35h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $6 35h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $59 35h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $279 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $200 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $260 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $205 45h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $56 46h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $627 47h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $83 47h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $35 47h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $18 47h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $59 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.38 · official $104.38 (match) · 193 history records