Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x152d…e147 politics 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-0%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$14
politics 36% −$15
sports 9% −$97
tech 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -7.4% -16.2% 7% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 4% -9.9%
10% -24.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -31.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -38.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage134d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $473 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $378 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $464 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $211 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $438 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $407 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $229 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $431 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $400 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $185 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 22 $589 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $205 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $385 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $415 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 24d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 28d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 29d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 31d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $153 31d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $153 34d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $213 36d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $213 38d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 38d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 39d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $201 39d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $201 41d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $183 46d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $183 48d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $185 48d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $185 49d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $220 49d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $220 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.95 · official $66.95 (match) · 410 history records