Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x1529…ba87 sports 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$447 (-4%) realized −$446 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%148W / 203L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$130
14 days+$437
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$237
other 37% −$762
crypto 13% +$38
world 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +21.4% +9.8% 37% 37% +12.4%
≤30d 116 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 36% -5.5%
≤90d 205 -12.4% -20.7% 39% 35% -12.2%
all 351 -8.4% -17.1% 42% 37% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 37% -12.9%
10% -25.1% 36% -21.2%
15% -32.3% 35% -28.8%
20% -38.9% 30% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$446
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses148 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)351 / 354
History coverage208d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$57 +1115%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$5 -51%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 +$123 +120%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$33 +650%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -52%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$25 -81%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +61%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$56 +550%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $61 +$55 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $305 +$186 +61%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$25 +50%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $10 +$81 +786%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $20 15m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 44¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $19 34h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $5 37h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 90¢ $224 37h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $102 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $10 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 46h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.88 · official $88.88 · 545 history records